Will Lady Gaga’s ‘Mayhem’ Bring Order to the Top of the Billboard 200? (2025)

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 22, we look at whether the latest album from one of the century’s greatest pop stars will return her to the top of the chart for the first time in five years.

Lady Gaga, Mayhem (Interscope): For the first time since 2020, Lady Gaga has returned with a new album of original material. The long-anticipated Mayhem follows the pandemic-released Chromatica, and arrives on the back of a trio of advance singles: the solo top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits “Disease” and “Abracadabra,” which lead off the new set, and the Hot 100-topping Bruno Mars duet “Die With a Smile,” which is included as the album’s closer.

The well-reviewed album also comes following an absolute avalanche of 2025 promotional appearances, including performances at the Grammys, the FireAid benefit concert and the SNL 50th Anniversary Homecoming Concert, and video interviews with Apple Music’s Zane Lowe, Sean Evans of Hot Ones and Billboard’s own Stephen Daw, among many others. Gaga capped her epic Mayhem promo run last weekend by pulling double duty on Saturday’s SNL, both hosting the show and serving as its musical guest, delivering captivating performances of both “Abracadabra” and “Killah” off the new set.

The 14-track LP is also available for sale in a wide variety of physical formats, including a stunning 14 different vinyl variants – some of which are signed and some of which include the bonus track “Can’t Stop the High,” along with a Target exclusive that features the extra cut “Kill for Love.” There are also four different CD editions, with the same options of bonus tracks and a Gaga signature, as well as a deluxe CD box set with a branded T-shirt and poster and even a cassette version.

It’s all likely to put the Drake vs. Kendrick Lamar warring at the top of the Billboard 200 – which resulted in one of the closest races in recent years this week, with Lamar’s GNX ultimately reigning triumphant for a third nonconsecutive frame – to bed, as Mayhem seems a good bet to give Gaga her seventh No. 1 on the chart. It might end up falling short of the 274,000 units moved by Chromatica in its 2020 debut week – back then, merch and ticket bundles still counted towards Billboard chart calculations, and significantly boosted that album’s initial numbers – but it should still land comfortably in the six figures, and has a good chance of passing the 177,000 of Tate McRae’s So Close to What entrance for thebiggest debut week for a studio album by a female artist in 2025.

IN THE MIX

JENNIE, RUBY (Odd Atelier/Columbia): The recent rush of releases from BLACKPINK members reaches its end – presumably anyway – with the English-language solo debut LP from JENNIE. The star-studded RUBY includes collaborations with Dua Lipa, Dominic Fike, Childish Gambino, Kali Uchis, and of course Billboard Woman of the Year Doechii, whose “ExtraL” team-up with JENNIE graced the Hot 100 at No. 75 earlier this month. With a relatively muted streaming presence and no major breakout hits yet, RUBY is unlikely to challenge for the Billboard 200’s top spot, but should follow ROSÉ’s Number One Girl and Lisa’s Alter Ego to the chart’s top 10.

Jason Isbell, Foxes in the Snow (Southeastern): The latest effort from acclaimed Americana singer-songwriter Jason Isbell is his first in nearly 20 years to not include any contributions from his longtime backing band the 400 Unit. It’s not the only way he’s gone it solo recently, as the album was written in the wake of his divorce with former bandmate Amanda Shires, and was heavily influenced by the split. Isbell’s albums reliably sell well, and Foxes is available in both five vinyl variants and a pair of CD editions.

Spiritbox, Tsunami Sea (Pale Chord/Rise):Canadian heavy metal band Spiritbox turned a lot of chartwatchers’ heads four years ago when its debut set Eternal Blue managed a No. 13 debut on the Billboard 200 – a very impressive number for any hard rock band this decade, but particularly one without much history on the Billboard charts. This month, the now-Grammy-nominated quartet returns with Tsunami Sea, which is getting rave reviews and which is available for purchase on CD, cassette and at least nine vinyl variants.